{
  "schemaVersion": 1,
  "system": "As Above Regime Map",
  "asOf": "2026-08-21",
  "updatedAt": "2026-08-22T12:00:00-08:00",
  "historyUrl": "https://asabove.tech/intelligence/archive/",
  "latestChange": {
    "date": "2026-08-22",
    "classification": "framework clarification",
    "summary": "Gold and Bitcoin remain inside one monetary-scarcity family but have been separated by portfolio function: reserve insurance versus liquidity-sensitive optionality.",
    "sourceArticle": "https://asabove.tech/signal/2026-08-22-gold-insurance-bitcoin-optionality"
  },
  "baseRegime": {
    "name": "Resilient nominal growth / rising fiscal gravity",
    "summary": "Present economic and earnings resilience is colliding with weaker labor momentum, sticky headline inflation, and a long Treasury curve demanding greater compensation.",
    "confidence": "moderate",
    "sourceArticle": "https://asabove.tech/signal/2026-08-22-market-voting-twice-bitcoin-gold"
  },
  "lenses": [
    {"id":"growth","label":"Growth","state":"slowing","direction":"negative","evidence":"Payroll momentum is weakening, but equity breadth and nominal earnings remain resilient."},
    {"id":"inflation","label":"Inflation","state":"sticky","direction":"mixed","evidence":"Headline CPI remains above target even as core inflation cools."},
    {"id":"liquidity","label":"Liquidity","state":"reactive","direction":"mixed","evidence":"Markets are increasingly sensitive to expected policy responses and Treasury operations."},
    {"id":"fiscal","label":"Fiscal / duration","state":"pressure","direction":"negative","evidence":"The 10-year at 4.74% and 30-year at 5.27% show the long end demanding compensation."},
    {"id":"credit","label":"Credit","state":"orderly but vulnerable","direction":"neutral","evidence":"Credit has not yet confirmed the stress implied by the long end; widening spreads are the key transmission test."},
    {"id":"breadth","label":"Market breadth","state":"constructive","direction":"positive","evidence":"Small caps leading large caps supports a broader nominal-resilience thesis."},
    {"id":"positioning","label":"Positioning","state":"reflexive","direction":"mixed","evidence":"Bitcoin's rebound was amplified by bearish derivatives liquidations, making relative confirmation important."},
    {"id":"credibility","label":"Policy credibility","state":"testing","direction":"negative","evidence":"Gold rising alongside elevated real yields suggests credibility matters more than carry alone."}
  ],
  "crossAsset": {
    "equities":"A claim on productive cash flows and nominal earnings.",
    "treasuries":"A claim on the future value and financing cost of sovereign liabilities.",
    "gold":"Insurance against policy and monetary credibility.",
    "bitcoin":"Convex optionality on liquidity and a scarce monetary network."
  },
  "monitor": [
    "10-year and 30-year yields versus growth",
    "Small-cap and equal-weight breadth versus mega-cap leadership",
    "Bitcoin relative strength versus the Nasdaq",
    "Gold relative strength versus real yields",
    "The dollar versus long Treasury yields",
    "High-yield credit spreads"
  ],
  "sources": [
    "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?field_tdr_date_value=202608&type=daily_treasury_yield_curve",
    "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260729a.htm",
    "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260729.htm",
    "https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0590",
    "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.htm",
    "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_08122026.htm"
    ,"https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/central-bank-gold-reserves-survey-2026"
    ,"https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-q2-2026/central-banks"
    ,"https://www.cmegroup.com/insights/economic-research/2026/can-crypto-world-break-free-from-bitcoins-undertow.html"
  ]
}