Core Thesis
History moves in cycles of approximately 80-100 years, each containing four distinct "turnings." We are now living through the Fourth Turning—the Crisis era—and understanding this framework is essential for navigating markets, building wealth, and participating in civilization's transformation.
The Core Thesis
In 1997, William Strauss and Neil Howe published The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy, a book that has become eerily prescient. Their central claim: history moves in cycles of approximately 80-100 years, each cycle containing four distinct "turnings" of roughly 20 years each.
We are now living through the Fourth Turning—the Crisis era—and understanding this framework is essential for anyone navigating markets, building wealth, or attempting to understand the forces reshaping our world.
This isn't mere historical curiosity. The Fourth Turning framework explains:
- Why institutions are failing simultaneously
- Why generational conflict feels more intense than ever
- Why the next decade will likely see events comparable to the American Revolution, Civil War, or World War II
- How to position yourself—financially, psychologically, and spiritually—for what's coming
The Four Turnings
Every saeculum (the Latin term Strauss and Howe use for a full cycle) contains four turnings, each with a distinct social mood:
First Turning: The High (Spring)
Characteristics: Institutional confidence peaks. Civic order strengthens. Conformity is valued. Individual expression is suppressed in favor of collective purpose.
Historical example: Post-World War II America (1946-1964). The GI Bill, suburban expansion, corporate loyalty, nuclear families, and the American Dream as shared aspiration.
Mood: Optimism, trust in institutions, collective sacrifice accepted.
Second Turning: The Awakening (Summer)
Characteristics: Spiritual upheaval. Institutions are attacked in the name of personal and spiritual autonomy. Consciousness expansion becomes a cultural priority.
Historical example: The Consciousness Revolution (1964-1984). Civil rights, Vietnam protests, psychedelic experimentation, feminism, environmentalism, religious revivals, Woodstock, and the "Me Decade."
Mood: Passion, idealism, cultural ferment, rejection of conformity.
Third Turning: The Unraveling (Autumn)
Characteristics: Institutions weaken and are discredited. Individualism dominates. Culture fragments. Cynicism about collective action. Trust erodes.
Historical example: The Culture Wars (1984-2008). Political polarization, corporate scandals, declining civic participation, ironic detachment, identity politics, the rise of cable news tribalism.
Mood: Skepticism, pragmatism, privatism, distrust.
Fourth Turning: The Crisis (Winter)
Characteristics: Secular upheaval. Institutional life is destroyed and rebuilt from the ground up. Society channels its energy toward solving fundamental problems. Individual sacrifice for collective survival.
Historical example (current): The Millennial Crisis (2008-present). Financial collapse, pandemic, political extremism, technological disruption, potential for war or revolution.
Mood: Urgency, fear, resolve, demand for decisive action.
The Generational Archetypes
Each turning is shaped by four generational archetypes, who move through different life stages as the cycle progresses:
Prophet/Idealist Generation
- Born during: A High
- Coming of age during: An Awakening
- In elderhood during: A Crisis
- Current example: Baby Boomers (born 1943-1960)
- Role in Crisis: Provide moral vision and leadership
Nomad/Reactive Generation
- Born during: An Awakening
- Coming of age during: An Unraveling
- In midlife during: A Crisis
- Current example: Generation X (born 1961-1981)
- Role in Crisis: Pragmatic leadership, get things done
Hero/Civic Generation
- Born during: An Unraveling
- Coming of age during: A Crisis
- In young adulthood during: A Crisis
- Current example: Millennials (born 1982-2004)
- Role in Crisis: Foot soldiers, collective action, institution building
Artist/Adaptive Generation
- Born during: A Crisis
- Coming of age during: A High
- In childhood during: A Crisis
- Current example: Generation Z/Homelanders (born 2005-present)
- Role in Crisis: Protected children who will become the artists and peacemakers of the next High
Where We Are Now
According to Strauss and Howe's framework, the Fourth Turning began around 2008 with the Global Financial Crisis. Neil Howe, in his 2023 book The Fourth Turning Is Here, confirms we are now in the climax phase.
Key markers of the current Crisis:
- 2008: Financial system collapse, trust in institutions shattered
- 2016-2020: Political polarization reaches Civil War-era intensity
- 2020: Pandemic accelerates institutional failure and transformation
- 2024-2028: Predicted climax period—resolution of the crisis through transformation or catastrophe
The historical pattern suggests the Crisis will reach its climax and resolution within the next few years. Previous Fourth Turnings ended with:
- 1781: Victory at Yorktown, birth of the Republic
- 1865: Union victory, end of slavery, industrial America begins
- 1945: Allied victory, American global hegemony, nuclear age begins
Each crisis destroyed the old order and created the foundation for a new one.
The Fourth Turning and Markets: An Oikos Perspective
For investors, the Fourth Turning framework is not abstract theory—it's a macro lens that explains regime changes in capital markets.
Crisis Turnings Are Deflationary, Then Inflationary
Historical pattern:
- Initial shock: Deflationary collapse (2008, 1929)
- Policy response: Massive liquidity injection, currency debasement
- Outcome: Asset repricing, new monetary regime
The current cycle has followed this pattern precisely. The Federal Reserve's response to 2008 and 2020 has created conditions for potential monetary regime change—exactly what Fourth Turning theory predicts.
Hard Assets Outperform During Crisis Resolution
During the climax and resolution phases of previous Fourth Turnings:
- Gold outperformed during 1930s-1940s monetary restructuring
- Real assets held value through Civil War currency instability
- Land and productive assets preserved wealth through Revolution-era chaos
Implication for today: Bitcoin, gold, productive real estate, and equity in essential businesses are likely to outperform as the current Crisis resolves.
The "Everything Code" Is a Fourth Turning Phenomenon
Raoul Pal's "Everything Code"—the observation that risk assets move together based on global liquidity—is a Fourth Turning artifact. In Crisis turnings, the policy response becomes so large that it overwhelms all other factors. Central bank balance sheets become the primary driver of all asset prices.
This is not normal. It is a Crisis-era phenomenon that will persist until the Fourth Turning resolves and a new monetary order emerges.
Consciousness and the Crisis: A Pneuma Perspective
The Fourth Turning is not merely economic or political—it's a transformation of consciousness.
Awakenings Precede Crises
Notice the pattern: every Fourth Turning is preceded by a Second Turning (Awakening). The consciousness expansion of the 1960s-70s planted seeds that are now bearing fruit—both light and shadow.
The psychedelic renaissance, meditation mainstreaming, and renewed interest in ancient wisdom traditions are not accidents. They're preparation for the collective trauma and transformation that Crisis turnings demand.
Cannabis and the Crisis Era
Cannabis legalization is a Fourth Turning phenomenon. The substance that was demonized during the Third Turning (Unraveling) becomes normalized during the Crisis as society seeks tools for:
- Stress management in high-anxiety times
- Alternative medicine as healthcare institutions strain
- Economic opportunity in legal markets
- Consciousness modulation for adaptation
This isn't coincidence—it's cyclical recurrence. Alcohol prohibition ended during the last Fourth Turning (1933).
The Body in Crisis: A Soma Perspective
Crisis turnings demand physical resilience. The body becomes a survival tool, not a lifestyle accessory.
Hormesis and Adaptation
The Fourth Turning subjects populations to chronic stress—economic uncertainty, social upheaval, potential conflict. The Soma perspective teaches that strategic stress builds resilience.
Protocols that matter during Crisis:
- Cold exposure: Builds stress tolerance, improves mood regulation
- Fasting: Metabolic flexibility for resource uncertainty
- Strength training: Physical capability, psychological confidence
- Sleep optimization: Cognitive function under pressure
The Longevity Imperative
If we're at the climax of a Crisis that resolves into a new High by 2030, those who survive and thrive will have decades of opportunity ahead. Longevity science—NAD+ precursors, senolytics, epigenetic interventions—becomes strategic investment, not vanity.
Mind in the Crisis: A Noosphere Perspective
Cognitive Biases Amplified
Crisis turnings amplify cognitive biases:
- Tribalism: Us-vs-them thinking intensifies
- Availability heuristic: Dramatic events distort risk assessment
- Confirmation bias: Polarized information environments reinforce priors
- Loss aversion: Fear of losing what remains overrides opportunity-seeking
The Noosphere perspective teaches metacognition—awareness of your own cognitive patterns. During Crisis, this awareness becomes survival skill.
The Role of AI
Artificial intelligence is the wild card in this Fourth Turning. No previous Crisis had access to instantaneous global communication, machine intelligence that can process patterns humans cannot see, or autonomous agents operating at scale.
The implication is clear: augmented cognition may be necessary to navigate complexity that exceeds unaided human capacity.
Technology and the Crisis: A Techne Perspective
Technology as Turning Accelerant
Every Fourth Turning has been accelerated by transformative technology:
- American Revolution: Printing press, maritime navigation
- Civil War: Telegraph, railroad, rifle manufacturing
- World War II: Radio, aviation, nuclear physics
The current Crisis is accelerated by:
- Internet/social media: Information velocity, polarization amplification
- Blockchain: Trustless systems as institutional trust collapses
- AI: Automation of cognitive labor, potential for autonomous agents
- Biotechnology: CRISPR, mRNA, potential for radical life extension
Building in the Crisis
The Techne perspective sees technology as craft—tools that multiply human capability. During Crisis, the question becomes: which tools help us survive, adapt, and build the next order?
Our bet at As Above: AI agents that help humans navigate complexity, make better decisions, and maintain coherence as institutions fragment.
Natural Law and the Cycle: A Hermetics Perspective
The Fourth Turning maps directly onto the Seven Hermetic Principles.
The Principle of Rhythm
"Everything flows, out and in; everything has its tides; all things rise and fall."
The saecular cycle is the Principle of Rhythm manifested in human affairs. The turnings are tides—predictable in pattern if not in exact timing. Those who understand rhythm don't fight the tide; they position for the next phase.
The Principle of Polarity
"Everything is dual; everything has poles; everything has its pair of opposites."
Crisis turnings intensify polarity: left/right, order/chaos, old/young, preservation/transformation. The Hermetic adept sees both poles as expressions of the same underlying reality and seeks the transcendent synthesis.
The Principle of Cause and Effect
"Every cause has its effect; every effect has its cause."
The Crisis we're living through was caused by choices made during the Awakening and Unraveling. The resolution will be caused by choices made now. This isn't fatalism—it's understanding the chain of causation well enough to act effectively.
The Principle of Mentalism
"The All is Mind; the Universe is Mental."
Ultimately, the Fourth Turning is a collective mental phenomenon—a shift in the shared consciousness of a civilization. The institutions that collapse and the new ones that emerge are expressions of changed minds. Change the mind, change the turning.
Practical Application: What To Do Now
Financial Preparation
- Diversify across monetary regimes: USD, BTC, gold, productive assets
- Maintain 6-12 months liquidity: Crisis climaxes are volatile
- Reduce fragile dependencies: Debt, single income sources, vulnerable supply chains
- Build positions in post-Crisis winners: Technology, energy, healthcare innovation
Psychological Preparation
- Study history: Previous Crisis resolutions provide mental models
- Build stress tolerance: Physical and mental resilience practices
- Cultivate community: Isolation is dangerous during Crisis
- Maintain long-term perspective: The Crisis will end; the next High will come
Spiritual Preparation
- Ground your ethics: Crisis turnings test moral foundations
- Develop discernment: Information warfare intensifies
- Practice presence: Anxiety about the future is the enemy of effective action
- Connect to something larger: Whether God, nature, humanity, or cosmos—transcendent connection provides stability
Skill Preparation
- Valuable skills: What can you do that will matter regardless of institutional collapse?
- Adaptability: The ability to learn new skills rapidly
- Leadership: Someone has to build the next order
- Communication: The ability to coordinate action across tribes
The Great Work
The Fourth Turning is not merely something to survive—it's an opportunity for transformation.
Every previous Crisis created:
- New freedoms (Revolution: independence; Civil War: emancipation; WWII: civil rights foundation)
- New institutions (Constitution, corporate capitalism, international order)
- New possibilities (westward expansion, industrialization, global prosperity)
The current Crisis will create opportunities we cannot yet imagine. Those who prepare—financially, mentally, spiritually, physically—will be positioned to participate in building the next civilization.
The Great Work
This is the Great Work: not merely personal advancement, but participation in the collective transformation of human possibility. As above, so below. As the cycle turns, so do we.
Further Reading
- The Fourth Turning by William Strauss and Neil Howe (1997)
- The Fourth Turning Is Here by Neil Howe (2023)
- Generations by Strauss and Howe (1991)
- The Kybalion (Hermetic principles underlying cyclical theory)
- Prometheus Rising by Robert Anton Wilson (consciousness and transformation)